Expect More Controversy in Tennis' Future

For most of the last decade during tennis' "golden age" on the men's tour, the sport has mostly steered clear of major controversies.  The Big Four clearly reigned supreme, and everyone else seemed to know their place.  There may have been some minor dustups between members of the Big Four (notably Federer and Djokovic), but they've largely gotten along given how often they run up against each other.  They all seemed to realize they're more marketable if they "keep it classy", and have taken steps to maintain pristine images.

It looked like the next generation was going to follow in the Big Four's footsteps in terms of their images.  Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Juan Martin Del Potro and Grigor Dimitrov all seem to be liked by other players and fans, and minus a few harsh words by Serena aimed at Dimitrov there hasn't been much controversy following this group.  However, they've also failed to take the next step to consistently challenge the Big Four on the court (or are at least taking their sweet time in doing so). 

Just when the ATP Tour thought it was safe and that juniors would learn from the Big Four, along came the even younger and more talented group of players such as Nick Kyrgios, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Borna Coric, Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev.  This group has gotten a lot of attention following Kyrgios' recent controversy, and people seem to be realizing what the tour could be in for as the Big Four begins to wind down.  (Though at this rate it seems like Federer will still be firmly entrenched in the top ten when he's 47).  All of the above players are extremely talented and should be some of the tour's best over the next decade, but are widely considered to be varying degrees of temperamental or controversial. 

Everyone has their opinion about whether the tour is better or worse with some controversial players at the top, and it's hard to reach a definitive answer.  Some tennis purists will hate it, others will enjoy the added intrigue, and the rest will find some controversy entertaining so long as it doesn't go past a certain point.  Regardless of one's opinion on the issue, it's looking like it won't be long until we once again find out what it's like to have controversial figures ruling the sport. 

There's a chance they'll tone it down as they get older and realize they're losing potential endorsements.  Djokovic and Murray were considered controversial to some extent when they were newer on tour, but now both are incredibly well respected.  However, at this point it's hard to see all (or even most) of this younger group making such a transition.  Assuming they don't, tennis fans may soon feel like they're stepping back into the McEnroe and Connors years of the 70s and 80s, as opposed to following the "golden age" of the Big Four.    

Some Thoughts Early In the Week At The Montreal Masters

Roger Federer may be resting, but most everyone else will be trying to get some valuable ranking points and momentum for the US Open at this week's Montreal Masters.  Below are some thoughts as the top players return to action at the biggest tournament since Wimbledon.

Djokovic will be looking to send a message:  Just like in 2014 Novak Djokovic enters Canada as the Wimbledon champion, but he'll be looking to avoid a repeat of the slip up he suffered last year in Canada and Cincinnati.  It's impossible to tell what effect if any his early losses last year had on his US Open semifinals defeat, but it may have given the rest of the field the belief that he was beatable.  Djokovic will be looking to remind the field that he's simply a level above everyone else, and he'll have his guard up after what happened last year.  His 2015 has been nearly flawless, and barring another in the zone performance by Wawrinka it's hard to see anyone stopping him in Montreal. 

Will any Americans make some noise?  John Isner has been the leading American man so far this summer, but it's not likely he'll have much left in Montreal after deep runs in Atlanta and Washington D.C.  Isner's draw isn't bad if he's able to give it a go, but three weeks in a row is probably too much for the big man.  Jack Sock has had a somewhat disappointing summer, and has a chance to win a few matches before facing Djokovic in the Round of 16.  Donald Young already has beaten Denis Kudla, but has to face Tomas Berdych in his next match.  Sam Querrey also already won his first round match, and could play Steve Johnson next if Johnson is able to upset David Goffin.  Johnson had a nice run in Washington D.C., and could put a scare into the world number 14.  The best bet to make the quarters is probably Johnson or Querrey, on the hope that Nishikori is a bit worn down from winning the title in D.C. last week.     

Can Thiem carry his momentum to North America?  One of the most exciting players of the summer has been 21 year old Dominic Thiem, who won two 250s on the European clay and made the semis of another.  He's up to 18 in the world, and is at 14 in the points race.  He's clearly supremely talented, but the next question is whether he's ready to become a contender at the big events.  Montreal is as good of a place to start as any, and a quarterfinal matchup against Djokovic would be a great test to see where he stands against the world's best. 

If Djokovic slips up, who will be ready to take advantage?  Djokovic is certainly the favorite, but if he doesn't come to Montreal ready to play there are a handful of others who could be ready to step up.  Murray is the second seed, but lost early in Washington D.C.  He should be more prepared for Montreal, and will be looking for momentum to jump start his summer.  Wawrinka and Raonic haven't played since Wimbledon and could be dealing with rust, but are always some of the most dangerous players on tour.  Nadal will be hoping his good form in Hamburg carries over to hard courts, but he's still a bit of a question mark.  If Nishikori has enough left after a tiring week in Washington he'll be a threat as well.  But if Djokovic does somehow fall early like last year, Murray is clearly the next best bet to win the title in Montreal. 

Is Dominic Thiem Ready To Make His Move?

Dominic Thiem is a name tennis fans have been familiar with for a few years now, and he became one of the games' brightest young prospects based on his success early in 2014.  He's still just 21, but a somewhat poor end to 2014 and beginning to 2015 saw Thiem get passed in the hype machine by even younger and supposedly brighter prospects (i.e. Coric, Kyrgios, Zverev, etc).  It's too soon to tell which of these prospects will become the best player, but it's now clear Thiem is back in good form and ready to make a run towards challenging the elite.  He just won back to back 250 level tournaments, and it won't be long before he sets his sights on bigger prizes. 

Winning 250 level tournaments and challenging for Masters and grand slam titles are clearly two different ball games, but Thiem doesn't seem like the type of player who will top out at the 250s.  Regardless of the level of the tournament it's important that Thiem is learning how to win titles, as these experiences should help him in bigger stages.  It's clear Thiem is an ultra-talented player, but lots of players struggle to turn their talent into victories.  The fact that Thiem already has 3 titles at age 21 is a promising sign, as it shows he's got substance to go with his talent.  No young player bursts onto the scene anymore and starts competing for major titles, and Thiem seems to be poised to work his way to the top one level at a time. 

With a powerful baseline game that resembles Stan Wawrinka, Thiem appears to have all the tools required to be successful in today's game.  He hit's heavy and powerful shots off both wings, and possesses an extremely deadly one-handed backhand.  He's got a good serve, moves well and also has good hands.  Seeing Wawrinka have so much success has to give Thiem confidence, as he sees how much trouble his style of play can give the best players in the world.

Realistically, Thiem probably isn't going to start winning Masters and Grand Slams within the next year or two, but there's no reason he shouldn't make a run at the top 10.  He's already in the top 25, and a lot of players ahead of him are getting up there in age and seem very vulnerable to getting passed by Thiem.  By the time he's 23 or 24 much of the current top 10 will likely be winding down their careers, and there's no reason Thiem can't make the jump to becoming one of the top players in the world.

Tennis has been in great hands for the last decade, but it's about time there are some fresh faces playing in the semis and finals of the biggest tournaments.  There's no shortage of young talent at the moment, but Thiem once again has to be considered one of the more likely prospects to excel over the next decade.  Everything seems to be setting up nicely for him, and we shouldn't be surprised if Thiem is at the forefront of the "next generation" when the Big Four's run finally comes to an end. 

What to Expect at the BB&T Atlanta Open?

The BB&T Atlanta Open, aka "grown ups Kalamazoo", may be lacking the world's best players, but has more than enough Americans to draw in the Atlanta fans.  Lots of young Americans were in qualifying, and the main draw has a collection of Americans young and old.  Mardy Fish is making an appearance as he goes on his farewell tour this summer, and is also teaming with Andy Roddick in the men's doubles.   

In the top half it's hard to see anyone stopping John Isner and Jack Sock from meeting in the semifinals.  Steve Johnson could give Isner some trouble in the quarters, but this is practically Isner's home tournament and he always bring his best game to Atlanta.  Jack Sock's section includes Denis Kudla and Ryan Harrison, and it's hard to find anyone who 3 years ago would have picked Harrison as the one from this group to be outside of the top 100 in 2015.  Fish is also in this part of the draw, and may have a shot to win his first round match against Dudi Sela.  Look for Sock to reach the semifinals without dropping a set. 

In the semifinals, Isner should be able to squeak past Sock for the third time in his career in Atlanta, after previously knocking him out of the event in 2012 and 2014.  Sock's a much better player than in year's past, but picking against Isner in Atlanta is like picking against Federer at Wimbledon or Nadal at the French Open (maybe a slight exaggeration). 

The bottom half should be a little more open. Canadian Vasek Pospisil is the number two seed, and is looking to back up his run to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.  However, outside of Wimbledon he hasn't done much of note all year, and is hardly a sure thing to make a deep run.  Emerging young American Jared Donaldson had an impressive run through qualifying, and opens up against former NCAA champion Somdev Devvarman in a match that could go either way. 

Fourth seeded Frenchman Adrian Mannarino just reached the finals of a 250 event in Bogota last week, and look for him to take out seventh seed Gilles Muller on his way to the semis.  Muller already destroyed Donald Young in his first round match, who has once again forgotten how to win matches at the ATP level after a promising start to the year. 

In the bottom section 17 year old American Frances Tiafoe is in with a wild card, and opens against big hitting Australian Sam Groth.  Tiafoe could have a bright future down the road, but it's hard to see him being competitive in this match given that he's been struggling at the Challenger level over the last couple of months.  Expect Pospisil to get past Marcos Baghdatis on his way to the semis, before knocking out Mannarino in the pair's first career meeting in the final four. 

In the finals, Pospisil may have a 2-1 head-to-head edge over Isner, but beating Isner in Atlanta and anywhere else in the world are two different stories.  It should be a big hitting and entertaining match up to watch, with the American prevailing in a third-set tiebreak to capture his third straight Atlanta title.   

The Next (And Better) John Isner?

17 year old American Reilly Opelka just won the junior Wimbledon boys title, and one thing is clear: he better get used to being compared to fellow American John Isner.  Like Isner, Opelka is over 6'9" and possesses an extremely powerful (and high bouncing) serve.  But where Isner has been limited by deficiencies in other areas of his game, it looks like Opelka may be the player we hoped Isner could develop into.

As was evident during the Wimbledon boys final, Opelka has much more than just a big serve to offer.  The junior world number four's backhand is surprisingly good, though it shouldn't be such a surprise anytime an American has a decent and technically sound backhand.  He doesn't seem to have any trouble hitting strong rally shots off that side, and seems comfortable going for backhand winners as well.  And while it's less of a surprise, he's certainly no slouch off the forehand side either.  It's unlikely movement will be the strength of anyone as tall as Opelka, but he seemed to move pretty well for someone his height.

As has been said many times before, it's always risky to predict pro success based on a player's junior career.  The vast majority of junior grand slam champions find little success in the pros, and only a select few make it big at the next level.  But given all the free points Opelka should win from his serve combined with a solid ground game, it looks like he's a much safer bet than many other junior prospects.  Sure he'll have his growing pains as he transitions to the pro tour, but in this day and age that's inevitable.  More importantly, he has a game that should translate well at the next level even if the results don't really show for a couple more years.  He also should be able to avoid much of the pressure that comes with being the next big thing in American men's tennis, as he's got about 6 other fellow American prospects to share the attention with.

When watching Isner play, it's easy to imagine how much success he'd be having if he were only slightly better in other areas of his game.  He's improved since he first came on tour, but not to the degree many fans of American tennis had hoped.  In a sport where the margins are so small, if Isner's backhand, movement, hands, etc were just a few percentages better, maybe he'd be a staple in the top 10 instead of the top 20.  With the emergence of Opelka, we may not have to wonder any longer.  We may finally get to see just how far a 6'10" serving machine can go when he's got the rest of the game to back it up.  

How High Can Djokovic Climb on the Grand Slam Title List?

With his Wimbledon title Novak Djokovic now has nine grand slam singles titles to his name, and there's no reason to believe he can't add several more to his total.  He'll be the heavy favorite to get his tenth at the US Open, and should have a good chance at further adding to his total in Australia after that.  While it's risky to predict that anyone will win five more grand slam titles, it doesn't seem crazy to think Djokovic could make a run at Rafael Nadal and Pete Sampras' total of 14. 

While Djokovic just turned 28, he appears to have at least a few years remaining in which he can rack up multiple grand slams per year.  The rest of the Big Four isn't nearly as much of threat to his slam chances as they used to be, and it's not clear who else is going to stop him.  Federer is nearly 34, and if he didn't beat Djokovic at Wimbledon it's hard to see where he's going to beat him.  Djokovic has solved the Nadal riddle as well, as he dispatched him easily at Roland Garros and has beaten him 6 out of the last 7 times.  He also has been dominant against Murray, having beaten him 8 straight times.  Wawrinka has given him trouble as of late (most notably denying him the career grand slam at the French Open), but Wawrinka is inconsistent and often loses earlier in tournaments. 

It's true things can change quickly in tennis, as a player can be on top of the world one moment and then quickly fall down a few pegs without much warning.  Nadal's decline has been pretty drastic, and he's only one year older than Djokovic.  However, Djokovic isn't showing any signs of slowing down, and it's hard to see his level of play dropping much in the next two years.  

Fortunately for Djokovic, there's not a particularly strong group of younger players ready to knock him off his perch either.  There's simply not many players in the 23-26 age group who look like they're ready to become a serious challenger to the world number one.  Cilic, Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov are all very good players, but they're up and down, injury prone and simply not at Djokovic's level.  While there's a more talented group of younger players on their way up (i.e. Kyrgios, Thiem, Coric, Kokkinakis, etc), they're probably a couple years away from hitting their peaks and won't be much of a threat to Djokovic anytime soon. 

Even if Djokovic doesn't age as gracefully as Federer, if he can remain at this level until he's 30 we may be viewing him in an entirely different light at the end of his career.  It always seemed like Djokovic was going to end up in the same conversation with the likes of Agassi, Lendl, Connors, Borg, and a few others who are considered legends but not quite in league with Federer, Sampras, Nadal, Laver and Emerson.  He's still got some work to do, but it looks like he may get a lot closer to joining that latter quintet than many of us thought.          

What to Expect at the Hall of Fame Tennis Championships in Newport?

The casual tennis fan may think the grass court season ends after Wimbledon, but the hardcore fan knows the tour turns to the grass at Newport for the Hall of Fame Championships.  Newport may not be a particularly menacing field even for a 250 level tournament, but there should still be plenty of intrigue.  The draw is led by the tour's two best servers and tallest players- John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, and the rest of the field will have to hope they bring their best return games to Newport.

The seeds in the top half are Isner, Adrian Mannarino, Bernard Tomic and Steve Johnson.  37 year old wild card Tommy Haas may have a shot to upset Mannarino, but he's playing just his third tournament back since coming back from a long injury layoff.  Otherwise, it's a fairly weak half and hard to see the seeds having much trouble.  Look for Isner to reach the semis, as he should get past the winner of the Mannarino/Haas match without too much trouble.  

Waiting for Isner will be American Steve Johnson, who will be looking to get his season going with a strong run.  Johnson's quarterfinal opponent Tomic may be the higher ranked player, but Johnson just beat Tomic in straight sets on grass a couple of weeks ago.  He should be confident heading into the rematch, and will be comfortable now that he's back playing in the United States.  In the semis, the big serving Isner should be too much for Johnson.  Isner leads the head to head 3-1, and Johnson has only taken one set in their last three meetings.  Also of interest for fans of American tennis- 18 year old up and comer Jared Donaldson faces off against American Austin Krajicek in the first round, and newly turned pro/NCAA runner up Noah Rubin opens up against Tatsuma Ito of Japan.

The seeds in the bottom half are Karlovic, Jack Sock, Tim Smyczek and Sam Querrey.  In the first quarterfinal on this half, look for Sock to power past fellow American Smyczek without too much trouble.  In the bottom quarter, Querrey will likely half to take on Rafael Nadal conqueror Dustin Brown in the second round.  Querrey's beaten Brown the last two times, and should be able to squeak past the entertaining Brown once again.  In the quarters, look for Querrey to top the second seeded Karlovic, against whom he has a surprising 5-1 career record.  In an all-American semifinals matchup, the more talented Sock should be able to overcome his older countryman. 

In the finals, expect Isner to get revenge for his loss to Sock at last year's Hall of Fame Championships.  That was the only time Sock has beaten Isner, although Sock has recently raised his level of play a good amount.  Still, Sock will struggle to make inroads on Isner's serve, and may still be suffering some effects from an apparent knee injury that hampered him at Wimbledon.  Isner generally has a busy and fairly productive run in the U.S. during the summer months, and he should be able to start things off on the right note in Newport.