Winners and Losers from the Australian Open Men's Draw

With the 2016 Australian Open ready to begin, here's a look at some winners and losers from the men's draw.

Winners:

Andy Murray:  Murray knew he'd land on the opposite side of Djokovic as the number two seed, but he was fortunate to see 4th seeded Wawrinka land on his half as opposed to 3rd seeded Federer.  Moreover, he's slated to play 8th seeded Ferrer in the quarters, who just got destroyed by Sock and shouldn't be much of a threat to Murray.  In the early rounds Murray doesn't look to have much to fear either.  He opens with 18 year old Alexander Zverev who is a superstar in the making, but isn't ready to beat Murray in a major at this point in his career.  After that the path looks to be relatively tame.  If Murray fails to make the semis with this draw it would be a big surprise, and he'd be confident heading into a semifinal match against Wawrinka or Nadal.  Winning a third career major in Australia is clearly Murray's goal, and the draw gave him as good of an opportunity to do so as he could have hoped for.

Rafael Nadal:  Nadal has to be thrilled with his Australian Open draw.  Both Djokovic and Federer are in the other half, and his potential quarterfinal opponent is Stan Wawrinka who he historically dominates (and beat in straights at the end of 2015).  While Murray is clearly in good form and would be a tough semifinal opponent, Nadal knows he can still beat him as he took Murray out at the 2015 year ending championships.  Nadal often plays himself into form as a tournament goes on, and he should have the opportunity to do so here.  He's not getting that much attention as a serious contender based on the beat down Djokovic gave him to open up the year in Doha, but with his friendly draw Nadal could end up being a major factor in Australia.

Losers:

Roger Federer:  As the third seed Federer was clearly hoping to land in the opposite half of Novak Djokovic, but he had no such luck.  Assuming he makes it to the semis he'll likely have to find a way to beat the world number one, but his draw to that point is tougher than the one he usually faces.  Federer could face the always tricky Alexandr Dolgopolov in round two, and a Grigor Dimitrov who seems closer to his 2014 form than his 2015 form in round 3.  He could then face the talented Dominic Thiem or David Goffin in the Round of 16.  In the quarters he could find himself facing the big hitting Berdych, Kyrgios or Cilic.  Federer would clearly be favored against any of these opponents individually, but having to role through such a tough draw just to make the semis could take a lot out of the 34 year old.  He's still a serious threat, but Federer's Australian Open draw did him no favors.

Kei Nishikori:  Nishikori failed to build on his success in grand slams in 2015 after reaching the 2014 US Open finals, and it looks like he'll have to wait a little bit longer to do so in 2016.  While his path to the quarterfinals is pretty manageable, he's slated to run into Djokovic in the quarters.  Based on current form Nishikori would struggle to even get a set (which says more about Djokovic than Nishikori).  It's possible Nishikori is ready to make a run at the top 5 in 2016, but it doesn't look like Australia will be much help in that regards. 

The "next generation":  The draw didn't do any favors to much of the promising next generation.  Alexander Zverev could have done damage with the right draw, but has to open against Murray.  Borna Coric would have to meet fellow countryman Marin Cilic in round two, and 19 year old Korean Hyeon Chung who is just outside the top 50 drew Djokovic in round one.  18 year old American qualifier Taylor Fritz has been on a tear to open up the new year, but drew Jack Sock in round one.  Assuming Sock is recovered from the flu in time, this seems to be asking a bit too much from Fritz at this point in his career.  Moreover, the big hitting Thanasi Kokkinakis wasn't even able to play Australia with an injury.  There's a lot to look forward to with this young generation, but it's unlikely we'll see a teenager make a deep run in Australia given their brutal draws.

What We Learned From Week 1 on the ATP Tour in 2016

There may be hope for a "youth" movement in 2016:  The one thing that's been missing from men's tennis in recent years is a young superstar who is good enough to challenge the Big Four.  While that's still a long ways away from happening, there were signs in the first week of the season that younger players (or at least guys younger than 27) are ready to make some moves.  19 year old Borna Coric reached the finals of Chennai where he fell to Stan Wawrinka, and in the process showed he may be poised for a true breakout season in 2016.  Milos Raonic topped Federer to win the Brisbane title, which is impressive even if Federer wasn't feeling 100%.  Also in Brisbane were the talented Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem and Bernard Tomic, who all had solid tournaments and look to be improved in the new season.  Moreover, 18 year old American Taylor Fritz continued his strong play in Challengers by rolling to the title in Happy Valley.  Given our lowered expectations at what constitutes a youth movement based on the recent past, tennis fans may be in for a pleasant surprise in 2016. 

Djokovic did not forget how to play tennis during the off-season:  If the rest of the tour was hoping that Djokovic lost a step during the off-season, they must be sorely disappointed after seeing what he did to Rafael Nadal in Doha.  The 14-time grand slam champion managed a grand total of 3 games against the World Number 1 in the Doha finals, and in doing so Djokovic sent a clear message to the rest of the tour that he plans on being just as dominant as ever in 2016.  It may be nearly impossible for Djokovic to top his epic 2015 season, but he's already off to a better start given that he lost to Karlovic in Doha to start off the previous season.  Djokovic has now won the last 6 tournaments he's played, and looks poised to have another dominant season in 2016.

The over 30 crowd may begin slowing down:  It wasn't a great week for the over 30 crowd on the ATP tour, and this could be a sign some of the tour's veterans may be in for a rough 2016.  33 and 34 year old Spaniards David Ferrer and Feliciano Lopez both suffered surprising first round losses in Doha.  32 year old Gilles Muller got knocked out by a qualifier in Chennai, and 31 year old Gilles Simon fell to Dimitrov for the first time in his career in Brisbane.  And then there was that loss by Federer to Raonic, though Federer did look to be in good form during his run to the finals.  Maybe the over 30 contingent just came out a bit flat to start the season and will get it together soon, but their early struggles could be a sign of more problems to come in 2016.

Don't sleep on Wawrinka in 2016:  Wawrinka didn't drop a set in capturing the Chennai title, and looks to be a threat heading into Australia.  He's won a slam in each of the last 2 seasons, and could do so again in 2016 if a draw falls right.  He didn't get much attention heading into the season, which is justifiable given most people were focusing on Djokovic's dominance, Murray's momentum following his Davis Cup title and Federer's continued great form.  But if Stan stays focused and motivated (which he looked to be to start off the season), we shouldn't be surprised if the Swiss number 2 steals another big title or two in the new season. 

Storylines to Watch on the ATP Tour in 2016

As we get ready to begin the 2016 ATP season, below is a look at some of the biggest storylines to follow during the upcoming year.

Can Djokovic win the career, or even 2016 calendar grand slam?  The obvious storyline heading into the year is whether Djokovic can finally win the French Open and complete the career grand slam.  Nadal is no longer invincible on clay, as Djokovic proved in destroying him on the way to the 2015 finals at Roland Garros.  Unfortunately for the Serb, he seemed to run out of steam by the finals and played a pretty tentative match against an in-the-zone Stan Wawrinka.  Djokovic looks like he'll be the favorite heading in, though based on recent form a tougher Nadal is likely to await than what we saw in 2015.  Murray is much improved on clay and could be a threat as well, and Djokovic will be hoping to find Murray and Nadal on the other half of the draw.  Assuming he's able to reach the finals once again, we can expect Djokovic to learn from his mistake in 2015 and come out with a more aggressive gameplan.  

The less likely but still interesting storyline is whether Djokovic can make a run at the 2016 grand slam.  He only came one match away last year, but it's hard to predict that anyone (no matter how dominant) will pull off this feat.  First, he has to stay healthy, which he's been pretty good at doing throughout his career.  Then, he's got to hope an opponent doesn't catch fire for a prolonged period of time, i.e. Wawrinka at the French.  Djokovic's world class defense generally makes him immune from getting blown off the court in a best of 5 match, but this doesn't mean it's impossible on any given day.  And while Djokovic has owned his fellow members of the Big Four at majors in recent years, if you run into Federer, Murray and Nadal enough at the latter stages of grand slams one slip-up is hard to avoid.  It may be unlikely, but it's still fun to imagine as one of the biggest stories of the 2016 season.

Will anyone new break into the ATP Elite?  We're probably still a couple of years away from the next generation truly joining the elite of the ATP Tour, but it's still a major storyline heading into the season.  Dominic Thiem, Jack Sock and Nick Kyrgios are all in their young twenties and have tons of talent, but whether they can challenge for spots in the top 10 remains to be seen.  Following behind them is the younger Coric, Zverev, Kokkinakis, Chung, Rublev and the deep group of American teens, who are all accomplished but may still need a few more years of seasoning.  If anyone from either of these groups can somehow start to challenge the ATP's best, it will be a breath of fresh air and a major storyline of the ATP season.

Does Federer have one more grand slam title (or Olympic gold) left in him?  It's been amazing how well Federer has played since he entered his thirties, and he's made several grand slam finals in the last couple of years.  But he's been unable to overcome the Djokovic riddle when it matters most, and it's hard to see him knocking off the world number one in a slam final now that he's nearing age 35.  Moreover, Murray and Nadal both look like they'll enter 2016 in good form, which should only make Federer's work more difficult as he attempts to win one more major title.  Federer will clearly be targeting Wimbledon, the US Open and the Olympics (which is the only major singles title he hasn't yet won) in 2016.  He likely won't enter any of these events as the favorite, but if the draw opens up it won't be shocking if he ends up holding one of these three titles.  Whether or not he pulls it off, Federer's attempt to win one more huge event will be a major story to watch in 2016.

Will anyone from the "lost generation" challenge the Big Four?  The "generation" of guys currently in their mid-twenties, i.e. Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, Cilic and Del Potro arrived with plenty of hype.  But due to some bad luck in terms of injuries and timing (being right behind one of the greatest groups of players of all time), they're in danger of failing to capitalize on their primes before being passed by in favor of the talented younger generation.  It's not too late for them, but they should all be feeling a sense of urgency.  Del Potro is clearly the furthest away, as he's barely played in the last couple of years with wrist injuries.  The rest all seem capable of having big 2016 seasons, but for this group a "big" season feels like a spot in the top 8.  However, if any of them can win a major (or in Cilic's case a second major), it will be a huge achievement for this group and could perhaps signal a slight changing of the guard.     

Some Predictions for the 2016 ATP Season (Part 2)

Grigor Dimitrov will be closer to his 2014 form:  In 2014 Dimitrov looked like the next big thing in men's tennis  He had his much awaited breakthrough year, spending time in the top 10 in the world and reached the semifinals at Wimbledon.  For a guy who improved every year since turning pro, the natural progression seemed to be that Dimitrov would start competing for grand slam titles in 2015.  Instead, for the first time in his career Dimitrov had a serious regression, and finished in the low-twenties in the rankings.  He was a non-factor at most big tournaments, and his backhand remained a weakness.  Some thought experimenting with a new racquet was the problem, others thought his focus was away from tennis, or that he wasn't ready to deal with the bigger spotlight 2014 brought.  But whatever the cause, 2014 was clearly a wasted year for the Bulgarian.  Most of the issues Dimitrov dealt with last season should be behind him, and he should be extremely motivated to prove 2015 was a fluke.  He's still remarkably talented, and can play with less pressure and attention in 2016.  Expect Dimitrov to finish the year a lot closer to 10 in the world than 30.

Jack Sock will end the year as the top ranked American:  John Isner has been carrying the torch for American men's tennis over the last several years, and generally maintains a ranking between 11-20 in the world.  While Isner had a strong 2015 (finishing at 11), 2016 may be the year Isner relinquishes his spot as the top ranked American.  Don't expect for Isner to have a big drop in the rankings, but it looks like Jack Sock is ready to take the next step.  Sock ended 2015 on a tear, and has fixed many of the deficiencies in his game that held him back early on.  Sock looks like he belongs on court with the top ATP players, and his game should be ready to compete with the world's best.  If he can stay healthy for the whole year (which has been a problem in the past), Sock should be able to finish just outside the top 10 in the world rankings.

Marin Cilic will be back:  2015 was a tough year for the 2014 US Open Champion, as late 2014 wrist problems hampered his preparations for the year.  Cilic never really got on track, though he still managed to reach the semis of the US Open and quarters of Wimbledon.  Now that he's had a full off-season to rest and train, Cilic should be ready to return to form in 2016.  He won't have the Big Four's consistency week in and week out, but a healthy Cilic could easily steal a Masters title or make a couple of deep runs in grand slams.  After a year in which he finished at 13 in the rankings, a final ranking in the 6-8 range is a reasonable expectation for the upcoming season.

Ernests Gulbis will return to the top 25:  There's no denying that 2015 was a disaster of a season for Gulbis.  He finished 2014 in the top 15 in the world, and at one point dropped outside of the top 100 in 2015.  There were times where it looked like he couldn't beat a club pro, and his bizarre forehand form (which appeared to help in 2014) began to look like a cheap gimmick.  While there's not much evidence to suggest Gulbis will return to form in 2016 (except a couple of decent results toward the end of the season), Gulbis generally does the opposite of what everyone expects.  If we have high expectations going in for Gulbis he generally disappoints, and when we write him off he tends to become relevant.  Now that no one is taking Gulbis seriously, things seem to be lining up exactly how Gulbis likes them. 

Some Predictions for the 2016 ATP Season (part 1)

Andy Murray will win his third grand slam title:  Murray has accomplished nearly everything a tennis pro could ask for (grand slam champion, Olympic gold medal, Davis Cup title), but the knock on him is that as good as he's been he "only" has two grand slam titles.  Look for Murray to capture his third major in 2016, though he may need a slip up by Djokovic along the way to make it happen.  Murray has worked his way up to number two in the world, and will benefit from avoiding Djokovic until the finals at every big event.  While Murray will be a threat at every major he plays, Wimbledon stands out as his best bet to get it done.  Australia should also present a good opportunity if he can ride the momentum from leading Great Britain to the 2015 Davis Cup title.

Dominic Thiem will reach the next level:  Thiem has been on everyone's radar for a while now even though he's just 22.  He finished 2015 at number 20 in the world, and won multiple 250 level tournaments.  However, he wasn't much of a factor at the bigger events.  This isn't particularly unusual for a younger player, but Thiem should be ready to step up his results at Masters and grand slams in 2016.  With a powerful game that resembles Stan Wawrinka's, Thiem has the point ending power and versatility that seems necessary to challenge for slams in today's game.  With all the physical tools he needs, Thiem's mental toughness and focus will determine how far he goes in 2016.  Expect Thiem to be more comfortable on tour and in the bigger events after his experiences over the last couple years, and a spot in the top 10 seems ascertainable for the talented Austrian.

Alexander Zverev will become the game's top young player:  The 18 year old ended 2015 just outside the top 80 in the world, but he was a bit overshadowed by fellow teen Borna Coric who finished nearly 40 spots ahead of him in the rankings.  Don't be fooled by the current rankings discrepancy, as Zverev seems better suited to reach the game's top level.  While it's hard to see Coric not becoming a perennial top 10-15 player, his lack of a weapon and average forehand are potentially worrisome.  Zverev has no such weaknesses, and has world class power.  Further, he moves well for his height, and his ground strokes should only become heavier as he bulks up.  While there's several talented young players on the ATP Tour, Zverev seems like the best bet to win a grand slam title.  He may already be known by serious tennis fans, but it won't be long until he's more of a household name. 

Young American men will surge up the rankings:  2015 was a promising year for the young Americans, notably Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Jared Donaldson and Tommy Paul.  Others such as Noah Rubin, Ernesto Escobedo, Stefan Kozlov and a few others also showed some positive signs.  Now that this group has some exposure to what life is like on the pro tour, many of them should be ready to take the next step.  That will mean different things to each of them based on their varying talent levels, but Fritz, Tiafoe, Paul and Donaldson should all have their sights set on a spot in the top 100.  After a full off-season to train following a year in which many of them just turned pro, expect big things from this talented group in 2016.   

It's Time to Make Davis Cup More of a Team Competition

Every year the Davis Cup title (at least theoretically) goes to the top country in men's tennis.  But for what's supposedly a "team" event, very little emphasis is placed on the whole "team" part.  This year's champion is Great Britain, who has one superstar in Andy Murray and only one other singles player in the top 100.  It's kind of hard to take the tournament seriously when a country like Great Britain can be deemed the best in the world, when they're essentially a one-man show. 

Great Britain to no fault of it's own merely took advantage of the Davis Cup format, which basically requires no depth of talent for the participating countries.  Given that one stud singles player (i.e. any member of the "Big Four") can win 2 out of the necessary 3 points in any given tie, very little else is needed to advance.  This may be great for the countries with superstars up top, but it's hard to say this is the best way to determine which country reigns supreme in men's tennis in any given year.

The whole ATP season is designed to recognize the top individual players in the world, so it simply doesn't make sense that the premier team event in men's tennis is so "individual" based.  To truly determine which is the best country, it would make more sense if each country has to use three or four singles players, as opposed to just two.  (Perhaps keep the current format but only let singles players play once, so that a country has to us it's 4 best singles players).  

The country that would have likely benefited the most from a more "team" friendly format over the last decade would have been France.  Most tennis analysts would acknowledge France has been one of the strongest countries in men's tennis over the last decade with the likes of Tsonga, Monfils, Gasquet, Simon and a host of others, but they don't even have one Davis Cup title with this crop.  Despite all their talent and depth, their lack of a sure fire number one option has kept them from winning a title.  But does anyone really consider Great Britain "better" than France when it comes to men's tennis?  It becomes fair to ask whether the problem was France and its inability to get the job done at the biggest moments, or whether France just found themselves stuck in a format that isn't really designed to reward the best "team".    

Some might argue Davis Cup struggles with garnering ratings and support enough as it is, and throwing out the fourth best player from Canada against the fourth best player from Belgium isn't going to help in that regard.  This may be true, but there has to be a way to make the competition more about recognizing the best country, and not just the country with the best player in any given year.  As many others have suggested, making Davis Cup an every other year event may be the solution toward boosting ratings and overall interest, and if fans are more excited about the event in itself they may not care as much about seeing some lower ranked players.  One way or the other, if the event is truly supposed to recognize the country with the best team, the format should be such that actually having a good "team" is a prerequisite to wining.  

Who Exceeded Expectations on the ATP Tour in 2015?

The following is a look at a few players on the ATP Tour who exceeded their expectations heading into the 2015 season:

Novak Djokovic:  Djokovic had ridiculously high expectations heading into the year, and he more than exceeded them.  Any questions about why he seemed to let some grand slam titles slip away were put to rest, and he continued to rocket his way up through the record books.  Winning 3 grand slams and 6 Masters titles is nearly impossible to achieve, and in doing so he destroyed any notion that the "Big Four" as we have come to know it still exists.  Djokovic came within one match of winning the 2015 Grand Slam, and would anyone really be surprised if he pulls it off in 2016?    

Benoit Paire:  Benoit Paire ended 2014 ranked around 100 in the world, and at one point early in 2015 nearly fell down to 150.  A once promising career seemed to be slipping away, in part based on injuries and a questionable mental game.  However, Paire managed to show some serious resolve and grinded his way all the up to 19 in the world at the season's end.  He showed more mental toughness along the way than most of us thought he had in him, notably fighting off match points to knock out Nishikori at the US Open, and winning 4 consecutive 3 set matches against tough competition to reach the finals of the 500 level Japan Open.  Paire put himself in a great position to take off in 2016, and will definitely be someone to watch going forward.

Hyeon Chung:  19 year old Hyeon Chung increased his ranking by over 100 spots in 2015, and finds himself just outside of the top 50 in the world.  He's part of a talented group of young teenagers getting ready to make their move on the ATP Tour, and will look to continue his rise in 2016.  Most of Chung's ranking points came in Challengers, and he didn't do much at the ATP level.  This isn't unusual or overly concerning for a teenager trying to break through, but Chung will need to fare better against ATP level competition in 2016 or he risks taking a step back.  Regardless of where he goes from here (and the bet is he'll adjust and be ready to make another jump next year), he took a major step forward this season.

Bernard Tomic:  Tomic started the year outside of the top 50 in the rankings, and quietly ends the year with a spot in the world's top 20.  Just when it seemed like the off-court drama surrounding Tomic would derail his career, he seems to have righted the ship in 2015.  While he's long been projected as a future star and it may seem strange to say a 23 year old Tomic "exceeded expectations" with a mere top 20 finish, it just shows how far he had fallen.  Tomic likely benefited from reduced attention given the emergence of other young Australian stars- notably Kyrgios and Kokkinakis, and should just be entering his prime in the next few years.