It's no surprise that Rafael Nadal's loss to Fabio
Fognini in Barcelona
is getting a lot of attention. Anytime
Nadal loses on clay it's a big deal, though it's certainly not as shocking as it
used to be. In the past it never
mattered what Nadal's form was heading into the clay season, as he'd always
return to dominance on the dirt. Now, it
appears his mediocre early season form has carried over. However, despite the further blow to Nadal's
confidence, it's unlikely the loss will have lasting implications.
Chances are Nadal will gradually improve as the clay season
goes on, and will be hitting his stride along the time the French Open rolls
around. Unfortunately for the rest of
the field that tournament is still a month away, giving Nadal plenty of time to
reach peak form. Even if he struggles
all the way up to Roland Garros, it's still hard to imagine him being too far
behind Djokovic as the bettor's favorite.
Beating Nadal on clay in a best of five match is the hardest task in
tennis, and until a current player does so it's one of those things we have to
see to believe.
If the French Open were held today, Djokovic would be the
pick, but even Djokovic would acknowledge how dangerous Nadal will be. Fortunately for Djokovic, it appears he will
no longer have to play a perfect match to beat Nadal at the French, as his
normal A game could be enough. Djokovic
used to believe (as he should have) that nothing but his absolute best would
suffice, which is a lot of pressure to deal with heading into the match. Now that he's closed the gap with Nadal on
clay, he can approach the match with a completely different and healthier
mindset. The logical signs may be
pointing Djokovic's way, but don't expect the Nadal we're seeing a month from
now to look anything like the Nadal we saw today.
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