It was just announced that 18 year old American and French
Open junior champion Tommy Paul decided to forego playing college tennis and
has decided to turn pro. He had
reportedly made a verbal commitment to the University
of Georgia (a great tennis school),
but must have changed his mind following his recent success playing Futures
tournaments in Europe and in winning Roland
Garros.
It's always interesting to see whether top American juniors
elect to go pro or play in college, and there's clearly no one right answer
that applies to everyone. However, for
someone who's been posting as good of results as Paul has lately, it seems like
going straight to the pros is a wise decision.
He's currently at 451 in the world rankings, and that's without
actually playing on tour as a full time professional. It's preferable that a junior has at least
some success at the pro level (even in futures) before turning pro, as opposed
to merely having success against other juniors.
Paul recently won a couple of futures on clay in Europe ,
and reached the semis of another. He
also recently won a match against a borderline top 100 player. Thus, it's clear Paul has done well playing
low level professional tournaments, and he appears to be improving
rapidly.
This certainly doesn't mean Paul will turn into a successful
ATP level player, as plenty of top juniors have failed to achieve anything on
the pro tour. However, Paul appears to
have solid all around game that should translate well to the next level. He already seems to have one of the best
backhands of any American, and moves well around the court.
More importantly he probably analyzed what college tennis
could do for his game given that he wants to be a top professional, and
concluded the answer was simply not enough.
While college has produced a few good professionals in the last decade
or so, they are few and far between.
Further, the two most successful (Isner and Anderson) are both over
6'7'' and would probably have found success with their huge serves regardless
of the route they took. Steve Johnson
was one of the best college players of all time, and it took him a few years to
adjust to the ATP after spending 4 years at USC.
Recently, the results have been mixed at best for NCAA stars
who have tried to transition to the pros.
NCAA champions Bradley Klahn and Blaz Rola have spent time in the top
100, but are hardly making much noise at the ATP level. Marcos Giron turned pro after winning the
2014 NCAA title, and is outside of the top 400 in the world. Dennis Novikov is hovering around 200 in the
world after starring for UCLA a few years back.
Austin Krajicek has been a steady improver and is trying to make a run
at the top 100 but unfortunately is currently stuck in a bit of a slump.
While many like to tout the advantages of playing college
tennis for young Americans, for the very small number of truly elite prospects
it appears the level of Division I competition simply may not be good enough to
prepare them for life as a pro. If it's
still going to take a few years to adjust to the ATP Tour after spending time
in college, it's fair to ask whether it's worth going to college in the first
place.
Paul would have immediately been one of the best players in
NCAA men's tennis (if not the best).
He's had junior/pro results that are similar to if not better than Noah
Rubin, who just took 2nd in the NCAA tournament at Wake
Forest after winning Wimbledon
juniors the year before. Rubin has also
decided to turn pro following his Freshman year, likely realizing college
tennis won't take his game any further. Maybe
Paul makes it big as a pro and maybe he doesn't, but its unlikely playing
college tennis would have done much to better prepare him for the pro tour.
He's clearly improving quickly on his own, and would be
taking a risk of stunting his development by playing in college. It's not easy out there for anyone trying to
make it on the ATP tour, and Paul is part of a deep group of young Americans
getting ready to make a run. Like fellow
young Americans Frances Tiafoe, Jared Donaldson and Stefan Kozlov before him,
he likely realized jumping straight in gives him his best chance to succeed
down the road.
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