In the last several years many lower level ATP tournaments
have left the United States ,
but the Memphis Open is holding strong.
This year's field is solid if not spectacular, and should definitely
capture the interest of fans of American men's tennis. Though Kei Nishikori is the top seed and
three-time defending champion, about a third of the field is made up of
American players.
It's hard to see anyone seriously challenging Nishikori in
the top half. He'll open with the winner
of Frances Tiafoe and Ryan Harrison, which based on recent form looks like it
will be Tiafoe. While Tiafoe has a very
bright future, if he does advance to play Nishikori it likely won't be much
more than a good learning experience.
Nishikori could then play 5th seeded American Denis Kudla in the
quarters, before running into 4th seeded Sam Querrey or 6th seeded Sam Groth in the
semis. If Nishikori even drops a set on
the way to the finals it will be a bit of a surprise.
The bottom half should be the more entertaining of the two
halves. Donald Young has gotten off to a
slow start to begin the year, but the 3rd seed should be able to build some
momentum by reaching the semis. This is
a key year in Young's career, as at age 26 he should be entering his
prime. If he can't capitalize on draws
like this, it's hard to see him being much more than a borderline top 50 player
the rest of the year.
The bottom section of the bottom half is packed with
Americans, including Austin Krajicek, Steven Johnson and teenage prospects
Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul. Paul should
have a shot to take out 34 year old Benjamin Becker in his opening match, and
would have a decent chance against Australian John Millman or Krajicek in the
second round. Fritz opens against a
qualifier, and then would face Johnson in round two. Fritz may be on his way to becoming America 's top
player, but at this point in their careers Johnson's experience should allow
him to prevail. Johnson has struggled to
begin 2016, but it's still hard to see him not advancing out of this
section. In the semis, look for Johnson
to get past Young in a tight three set match.
He owns a 2-1 career record against Young, and playing indoors should
help Johnson dominate with his big serve and forehand.
In the finals Nishikori should be able to get past Johnson
in straight sets. He owns a 3-0 career
record against the American, and is a much more complete player. Johnson will have to serve great and try to
keep points short, but it's hard to see him pulling off the upset. Nishikori should be able to expose Johnson's
weak backhand, and take advantage of the open court when Johnson tries to cheat
over to protect it. Nishikori's focus
for the year should be on improving his results in grand slams and Masters
tournaments, but winning another 250 should get him in the right state of mind
as he prepares to challenge for bigger titles.
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